From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”